Horse Racing Betting – The “Structured Flow” Approach
When your horse handicapping has arrived at the purpose of proficiency that assures some profits – in horse race betting, money and betting management becomes important. Actually, that’s really what separates the “pro” in the “dabbler” – a significance and savvy about horse race betting that means elevated profits. There are plenty of good handicappers, but you will find couple of professional bettors.
At most fundamental level, there are just 3 methods to betting horse racing
1. Raise bets up whenever you win
2. Raise bets up whenever you lose
3. Keep bets in the same level
The second is simply good old-fashioned “flat” betting. If your player feels confident with $20.00 bets although not $30.00 bets – he’ll fall under a groove of virtually always betting $15 to $25. And that is okay. As we have stated many occasions, the goals of some players may be just entertainment, or even the handicapping challenge – etc..
If, however, your ultimate goal for horse racing betting is maximized profits – then your serious player can’t just stay on a single flat bet level without regard to Return on investment percentage, winning race percentage, average payoff prices etc.. This can not allow optimal bankroll growth.
A better tactic may be to boost flat bet levels with a given percentage on every doubling from the betting bankroll. We have discussed that within the “Professional Horse Betting Now!” e-book and will not return in it here.
The 2nd listed approach – those of raising bets on losses – is easily the most potentially harmful approach. These types of ” betting progressions” can and also have been applied effectively, but they may also easily result in lack of the betting bankroll. Inside a later article, we’ll explore this kind of betting a little.
The very first listed approach – those of raising bets on the win – has undoubtedly the finest possibility to improve your betting profits. That’s the method we’ll go through here.
Betting a collection number of the bankroll accomplishes this and is easily the most generally used. A lot of you’re without doubt acquainted with the Kelly formula: win percentage minus loss percentage divided by go back to the dollar.
For any good a long time these funds management method for horse betting was touted in racing circles as the method of profit optimization.
The actual trouble with Kelly is it escalates bet levels too quickly whilst allowing a comparatively short losing streak to decimate or eliminate large profits accrued throughout a lengthy number of lucrative wagers.
Most players using Kelly make use of a “fractional Kelly” as a means of ameliorating this issue. It is almost always way too radical to make use of greater than 1/2 or perhaps 1/4 Kelly.
Should you choose use Kelly – it is important to take profits on any large “spike” within the bankroll. This helps the above mentioned pointed out volatility issue. This way once the inevitable losing streak comes – good profits will happen to be withdrawn in the bankroll.
Older handicapping knowledge has stated never bet greater than 2-five percent of the bankroll on anyone wager – regardless of what your perceived advantage. The astute player having a real advantage might push individuals parameters out just a little – but little!
Here is a recommended option to Kelly.
A “structured flow” horse betting method – raising the bet on wins and lowering it on losses – continues to be a good and viable method of growing profits, so exactly how should we approach this in a manner that is less radical compared to Kelly formula?
Remember – coping with streaks – both winning and losing – is vital that you our bottom-line. The streaks can come – that’s a given. The more odds your average champion – the more the possibility losing streak. On the other hand, it takes merely a brief winning streak at high odds payoffs to blow up a bankroll upwards.
When we use 4 % of betting bankroll like a benchmark – and given that we’ll be prepared to push the envelope a bit – let us set 8% (double the amount 4) like a maximum, and employ 2% (half some) at the very least.
At 16 to twenty percent winning races, we’d be prepared to win one in 6 races – pretty much. What you want to accomplish would be to have bigger bets around the winners and smaller sized bets around the losers. You want to raise our bet following a champion enough to ensure that 6 races later we’ll have a minimum of a rather bigger bet than we’d around the last champion – but – when we visit 7 and eight or even more bets with no champion, we are likely to have smaller sized bets on individuals than we’d around the last champion.
What sort of a horse race betting approach would suit you perfectly?
Raise bets 1.five percent of bankroll on wins – minimizing them .25 % on losses. This is a 6-1 ratio and really should fit the 16-20 % winning races nicely. Obviously, you are able to adjust this to whatever figures you’ve established in your race betting.
Put this formula to some series in case your own historic wagers – I think you will like that which you find.
Jerry Samovitz includes a good book you might like to continue reading this subject it’s known as: “From the Red and In to the Black” –
We advise it.
And, obviously, we recommend you receive onto good having to pay winners such as the ones the thing is above – which needs a solid handicapping way in which works. For additional on effective betting approaches, see: horse betting.